The unexpected.
The Donald is a good listener, even for a New Yorker, and he absorbs what you say and synthesizes what you say on a topic with what others say.
There’s the public Trump, which sounds authoritarian, but he IS A LEADER, and wants you to know it. And, being from New York, he’s direct about it. The stream of leaders going into Trump tower is impressive.
There’s the private Trump, who watches a lot of TV, even at 2 am. He’s not quite introspective, but close. I went to Wharton with him, and had a good friend from New Jersey, Eric Zausner, and the two of them were, and are, a lot alike. Zausner’s family owns a big food manufacturing and distribution business.
So, what might happen? Here are my thoughts:
- There will be an upturn in economic activity, just because Trump got elected. It’s all psychological.
- The business tax cut will happen quickly, and it will be 15%, or maybe 14, just to let the rest of the world know we mean business (pun intended).We suspect the law is being written as we speak. It has important psychological ramifications.
- The Affordable Care Act will be replaced, maybe with v. 2.0, which will be more affordable and there for those who need it. It will look like private insurance, and be underwritten by private carriers, but it will be underwritten, and you will get a subsidy if for income reasons you need it. Mandates are gone, in all forms. We suspect v 2.0 will have more options, to fit the intended audience better, which will be priced into the quoted costs. There will be some provisions for tort reform. Sessions and Carson will figure it out.
- God knows what is in the executive orders that has a business impact, but there will be a blanket repeal, and we suspect new legislation that is less dictatorial. For example, the overtime rules will be rewritten. Yes, you have to pay it over 40 hours, and here are the guidelines (not mandates).
- The downsizing of the EPA and Commerce will probably have some business impact; our friends at Ford and the other car companies probably are rejoicing.
- Wilbur Ross running Commerce will have a positive business impact; our guess is that if a company needs some help with trade levelling the trading playing ground, they will get it, and fast.
- Linda McMahon running the Small Business Association will be interesting. Maybe she can arm wrestle the banks to do more guaranteed lending to small business. Out of our 20 or so clients, only one has an SBA loan, and I’m sure others could use it.
- In fact, shrinking Barry seems to be the new rage. Trump is already making presidential decisions.